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The Unfolding End: 5 Critical Scenarios For How The Russia-Ukraine War Could Conclude

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The question "How did it end?"—a phrase usually reserved for historical events or fictional narratives—is one of the most pressing and uncertain inquiries facing the world today regarding the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine. As of this current date, December 21, 2025, the war has not reached a definitive conclusion, but it has entered a new, highly critical phase defined by a diplomatic push and a grinding war of attrition on the front lines.

The conflict's trajectory is now being shaped by a complex interplay of military stalemates, shifting geopolitical alliances, and renewed, yet fragile, peace negotiations. With the military focus shifting and major powers presenting new peace frameworks, understanding the potential final outcomes is crucial for assessing global stability and the future of Eastern Europe. The consensus among analysts is that the war is unlikely to end abruptly, instead concluding through one of several high-stakes scenarios.

The Current State of the Conflict: Late 2025 Military and Diplomatic Deadlock

To understand how the war might end, one must first grasp its current reality. The conflict has evolved into a prolonged war of attrition, characterized by slow, costly territorial shifts rather than sweeping offensives. Recent analysis indicates that Russian forces have continued to make incremental gains, capturing an estimated 215 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the period leading up to mid-December 2025.

This military reality is mirrored by a diplomatic flurry that has yet to yield a definitive breakthrough. A renewed diplomatic push in late 2025, spearheaded by the US, introduced a controversial 28-point peace plan. While the initiative aimed to secure a lasting agreement, it was met with skepticism and required substantial amendments from European allies and Ukraine, who argued the initial proposal favored Russian interests.

  • Military Strategy: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests Russia’s primary military objective for 2026 will be to seize Ukraine's "Fortress Belt," a heavily fortified line of defense.
  • Diplomatic Stance: Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly reaffirmed his commitment to achieving his full war aims, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists both sides must make compromises for the war to end.
  • Ukrainian Sentiment: A significant portion of the Ukrainian population holds out hope for an end to hostilities, with a combined 23% expecting the war to conclude in the first half of 2026.

Five Critical Scenarios for the War's Conclusion

Experts and policymakers have outlined several pathways for how the conflict could ultimately conclude. These scenarios range from a negotiated settlement to a prolonged, frozen conflict, each with profound implications for the global order.

1. The Negotiated Ceasefire and Partition (The "Korean Model")

This scenario involves a formal ceasefire along the current lines of control, or a slightly adjusted border, without a final peace treaty or resolution of territorial claims. It is the most commonly discussed "ending" in diplomatic circles, driven by the exhaustion of resources on both sides and political pressure from international partners.

The key entities involved would be the US, Russia, Ukraine, and key European powers. This outcome would likely see a demilitarized zone (DMZ) established, potentially secured by a US-backed European peacekeeping force. However, it leaves the fundamental conflict—the status of occupied territories—unresolved, leading to a long-term frozen conflict that could reignite at any time. The Kremlin has been resistant to the terms of the updated peace plans, suggesting the path to a mutually acceptable ceasefire line remains highly complex.

2. Russia Achieves Limited War Aims and Consolidates Territory

In this outcome, Russia successfully captures and consolidates control over the remaining parts of the Donbas region and potentially secures a land bridge to Crimea, including key cities like Odesa or Kharkiv. This would be achieved through a successful offensive against the "Fortress Belt" in 2026.

The war would end when Ukraine, facing overwhelming military pressure and depleted resources, is forced to accept a peace deal that formalizes Russia's territorial gains. This scenario is highly undesirable for Kyiv and its Western allies, as it validates Russia's aggression. It would likely lead to severe sanctions remaining in place and a massive, long-term effort to rebuild the remaining sovereign Ukrainian state, which would remain heavily militarized.

3. A Decisive Ukrainian Counter-Offensive

This scenario relies on a significant increase in Western military aid, particularly in advanced long-range precision weapons and air defense systems, allowing Ukraine to launch a successful counter-offensive in 2026. A key moment could emerge in February 2026, as suggested by Ukrainian intelligence. The goal would be to push Russian forces back to the pre-2022 invasion lines, or even further, forcing Moscow to retreat and negotiate from a position of weakness.

The conclusion would be a peace treaty largely on Ukraine’s terms, centered on full territorial integrity and war reparations. The risks are high, as a major Ukrainian victory could provoke a dangerous escalation from Russia. This path is favored by Ukraine's European allies, whose "Kyiv-friendly plan" emphasizes the non-negotiability of Ukrainian territory.

4. Internal Instability Leads to Regime Change in Russia

A less direct, but historically significant, path to ending the conflict involves internal political or economic collapse within Russia. The prolonged war, combined with severe international sanctions and high casualty rates, could lead to widespread public discontent or a coup within the Russian elite. This is a low-probability, high-impact scenario.

If regime change were to occur, a new leadership in Moscow might seek an immediate end to the conflict to stabilize the domestic situation and lift sanctions. This could result in a rapid withdrawal of Russian forces and a return to the negotiating table with far more favorable terms for Ukraine, potentially including the return of all occupied territories.

5. Protracted, Low-Intensity Conflict (The "Forever War")

The most probable scenario, as suggested by the "prolonged War of Attrition" assessment, is that the war simply does not end cleanly. Instead, it settles into a long-term, low-intensity conflict marked by sporadic fighting, artillery duels, and drone warfare along a static front line.

In this "forever war" scenario, international attention would wane, and the world would adapt to the conflict as a permanent fixture. Ukraine would continue to receive defensive aid to maintain the front, but major offensive operations would cease. The economic and human cost would remain high, and both countries would exist in a state of permanent mobilization, effectively ending the war not with a treaty, but with exhaustion and normalization of hostility.

The Diplomatic Path Ahead: The 28-Point Plan and Its Amendments

The current focus remains on the diplomatic track, specifically the US-backed 28-point framework. This plan, which emerged in late 2025, represents the most serious attempt to broker a peace deal in months. However, its success hinges on bridging the fundamental gap between the two sides: Ukraine's demand for full territorial restoration and Russia's insistence on retaining its claimed territories.

The European and Ukrainian amendments to the US proposal are critical, as they seek to ensure any final agreement does not reward Russian aggression. The discussions are complex, involving entities like the US Department of the Treasury, the Kremlin, and various European leaders. The outcome of these negotiations will determine whether the war concludes via Scenario 1 (Negotiated Ceasefire) or slides further into Scenario 5 (Protracted Conflict).

The global community continues to watch, understanding that the answer to "How did it end?" will not just define the future of Russia and Ukraine, but will set a precedent for international law and security for the rest of the 21st century.

The Unfolding End: 5 Critical Scenarios for How the Russia-Ukraine War Could Conclude
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